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中国六个城市大气中SO2和NO2对人群死亡的急性效应研究
作者:曾强 李国星 张磊 田霖 潘小川
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摘要:

目的  研究中国6个城市大气气态污染物SO2和NO2对人群死亡的急性效应。方法  收集北京、天津、西安、上海、广州和武汉市2007年1月1日至2009年12月31日的每日空气质量监测数据、同期气象监测数据及死因监测数据资料。采用广义相加模型,控制长期和季节趋势以及气象因素的影响,分析SO2和NO2日平均浓度与每日不同病因别死亡的相关性。结果  北京、天津、西安、上海、广州和武汉市等6个城市SO2日均浓度范围为39.8~ 59.5 μg/m3,NO2日均浓度范围为41.4~60.1 μg/m3;每日非意外死亡平均人数分别为174.5、101.4、27.7、108.4、50.6、17.8例;循环系统死亡平均人数分别为86.9、53.3、12.8、34.8、16.3、8.1例;呼吸系统死亡平均人数分别为18.3、8.6、2.6、18.6、9.0、1.8例。北京、天津、西安、武汉市SO2日均浓度与日均温度呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.66、-0.73、-0.67、-0.39,P值均<0.05;天津、上海、武汉市SO2日均浓度与相对湿度呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.26、-0.46、-0.28,P值均<0.05;北京、天津、西安、武汉市NO2日均浓度与日均温度呈负相关,相关系数分别为-0.27、-0.49、-0.45、-0.38,P值均<0.05。SO2当日浓度每升高10 μg/m3,天津和武汉市非意外死亡率分别增加0.44%(95%CI:0.11%~0.78%)和0.96%(95%CI:0.22%~1.72%)。SO2滞后1 d的浓度每升高10 μg/m3,上海、广州和武汉市非意外死亡率分别增加0.28%(95%CI:0.02%~0.54%)、0.41%(95%CI:0.04%~0.79%)和1.14%(95%CI:0.44%~1.84%)。在6个城市水平上,SO2监测当日和前1天的平均浓度每升高10 μg/m3,非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡率分别增加0.40%(95%CI:0.13%~ 0.67%)、0.48%(95%CI:0.11%~0.85%)。NO2当日浓度每升高10 μg/m3,北京、天津、上海、广州和武汉市的非意外死亡分别增加0.60%(95%CI:0.26%~0.95%)、0.96%(95%CI:0.29%~1.64%)、0.43%(95%CI:0.09%~0.78%)、1.17%(95%CI:0.69%~1.66%)和1.23%(95%CI:0.19%~2.28%),北京、天津、西安、广州和武汉市的循环系统死亡分别增加0.83%(95%CI:0.34%~1.32%)、1.09%(95%CI:0.25%~1.94%)、1.98%(95%CI:0.00%~4.01 %)、1.52%(95%CI:0.70%~2.36%)和2.04%(95%CI:0.54%~3.56%)。NO2滞后1 d浓度每升高10 μg/m3,广州、武汉市的非意外死亡分别增加0.97%(95%CI:0.49%~1.46%)、1.67%(95%CI:0.66%~2.70%),广州、武汉市的循环系统分别增加1.06%(95%CI:0.24%~1.89%)和2.42%(95%CI:0.97%~3.89%)。在6个城市水平上,NO2监测当日和前1天的平均浓度每升高10 μg/m3,非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡率分别增加0.81%(95% CI:0.35%~1.28%)、1.03%(95% CI:0.40%~1.66%)。结论  城市大气气态污染物SO2和NO2浓度的升高导致居民每日非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡增加。

关键词:空气污染物;二氧化硫;二氧化氮;广义相加模型

Abstract:

Objective  To explore acute effects of SO2 and NO2 on mortality in the six cities of China.Methods  Surveillance data on daily air quality, meteorology and the cause of death were collected from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 in Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan. Generalized additive model was used to explore the relationship between the daily average concentration of SO2 and NO2 and daily mortality, after adjusting the effects of long-term and seasonal trend and weather conditions.Results  In Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan, the daily average concentration of SO2 and NO2 were in the range of 39.8-59.5 μg/m3 and 41.4-60.1 μg/m3 respectively; the daily mortality for non-accidental were 174.5, 101.4, 27.7, 108.4, 50.6, 17.8, cardiovascular were 86.9, 53.3, 12.8, 34.8, 16.3, 8.1 and respiratory were 18.3, 8.6, 2.6, 18.6, 9.0, 1.8 respectively. The daily average concentration of SO2 were negatively correlated with daily average temperature in Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an and Wuhan (the correlation coefficients were-0.66, -0.73, -0.67 and-0.39 respectively, P<0.05). The daily average concentration of SO2 were negativeiy correlated with relative humidity in Tianjin, Shanghai and Wuhan (the correlation coefficients were -0.26, -0.46 and -0.28 respectively, P<0.05). The daily average concentration of NO2 were negative correlated with daily average temperature in Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an and Wuhan (the correlation coefficients were-0.27, -0.49, -0.45 and-0.38 respectively, P<0.05). When the day concentration of SO2 increased every 10 μg/m3, the non-accidental mortality in Tianjin and Wuhan raised 0.44%(95%CI: 0.11%-0.78%) and 0.96%(95%CI: 0.22%-1.72%) respectively. When the 1 day-lag concentration of SO2 increased every 10 μg/m3, the non-accidental mortality in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan raised 0.28% (95% CI: 0.02%-0.54% ), 0.41% (95% CI: 0.04%-0.79% ) and 1.14% (95% CI: 0.44%-1.84%) respectively. When the day and 1 day-lag concentration of SO2 increased every 10 μg/m3, the non-accidental mortality and the cardiovascular mortality at the six cities scale raised 0.40% (95% CI: 0.13%-0.67%) and 0.48% (95% CI: 0.11%-0.85%) respectively. When the day concentration of NO2 increased every 10 μg/m3, the non-accidental mortality in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Wuhan raised 0.60% (95% CI: 0.26%-0.95%), 0.96% (95% CI: 0.29%-1.64%), 0.43% (95% CI: 0.09%-0.78%), 1.17%(95%CI: 0.69%-1.66%) and 1.23%(95%CI: 0.19%-2.28%) respectively; the cardiovascular mortality in Beijing, Tianjin, Xi'an, Guangzhou and Wuhan raised 0.83% (95% CI: 0.34%-1.32%), 1.09% (95% CI: 0.25%-1.94%), 1.98% (95% CI: 0.00%-4.01%), 1.52% (95% CI: 0.70%-2.36%) and 2.04% (95% CI: 0.54%-3.56%) respectively. When the 1 day-lag concentration of NO2 increased every 10 μg/m3, the non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou and Wuhan raised 0.97% (95% CI: 0.49% -1.46%) and 1.67% (95% CI: 0.66%-2.70%)respectively; the cardiovascular mortality in Guangzhou and Wuhan raised 1.06% (95% CI: 0.24%-1.89%)and 2.42% (95% CI: 0.97%-3.89%) respectively. When the day and 1 day-lag concentration of NO2 increased every 10 μg/m3, the non-accidental mortality and the cardiovascular mortality at the six cities scale raised 0.81% (95% CI: 0.35%-1.28%), 1.03% (95% CI: 0.40%-1.66%) respectively.Conclusion  Exposure to SO2 and NO2 was significantly associated with daily non-accidental morality and cardiovascular morality at the multi-city scale in China.

Key words: Air pollutants;Sulfur dioxide;Nitrogen dioxide;Generalized additive model

发表日期:2015/12

引用本文:

图/表:

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T001

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T001

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T002

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T002

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T003

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T003

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T004:表4 2007–2009年中国6个城市SO2和NO2日均浓度与日均温度、相对湿度的Spearman相关分析(r值)

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T004:表4 2007–2009年中国6个城市SO2和NO2日均浓度与日均温度、相对湿度的Spearman相关分析(r值)

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T005:表5 2007–2009年中国6个城市SO2日平均浓度每升高10 μg/m3对病因别死亡的影响[ER(95%CI)值]

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T005:表5 2007–2009年中国6个城市SO2日平均浓度每升高10 μg/m3对病因别死亡的影响[ER(95%CI)值]

  • 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T006:表6 2007–2009年中国6个城市NO2日平均浓度每升高10 μg/m3对病因别死亡的影响[ER(95%CI)值]

    10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2015.12.013.T006:表6 2007–2009年中国6个城市NO2日平均浓度每升高10 μg/m3对病因别死亡的影响[ER(95%CI)值]

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